Predictable Predictability
71
Is Determinism Valid?
Is it possible to predict anything?
If so... what does that mean?
How does this affect free will in human beings?
I wrestle with this question every now and again and am going to bring it into discussion here...
It is my belief that anything can be predicted if all the information needed to make a prediction is given. This, of course is a theory and one can easily argue that it may not be possible to gather every bit of information needed to predict something, but let's just examine a hypothetical.
I spent one evening at the beach with my wife just staring at the waves and asked her, "Do you think it's possible to predict exactly how a wave will crash, from amount of water flow to height, direction, etc.?"
She said perhaps... to a degree.
But I argued on... if it was possible to know every factor that played a part in the process that completes a wave... when water reaches a shore and then crashes just so... Can that be predicted?
She answered my question with a quizzical look and asked, "What is wrong with you? We're at the beach at night and this is what you're thinking about?"
Alarmed, yet undaunted, I continued... I believe that this wave hypothetical can happen! At some point, some team of marine biologists will be able to measure everything that factors into the predicting of waves! They'll have to take into account the size of the body of water... salinity... moon gravitation... wind current... time of day... marine animals... a seemingly infinite number of factors... but eventually everything that comes into play is at hand and predicting waves... an exact science.
I believe it can be done! Maybe not in the near future, but possibly.
So this leads me to the point of my 'hub'... If something as complex as a wave can be predicted in theory, can human behavior also be predicted in the same manner?
When one involves the science of brain chemistry... charting neurons and whatnots firing in the brain due exposure to particular stimuli... charted, studied, observed, without fail... is it possible, after all this collected data, to predict human behavior conclusively? An exact science of human physiology, if you will... could, in fact, predetermine thoughts, emotions, actions, etc. based on prior data given! To this team of scientists/biologists/neurophysicists/etc... no behavior any person makes is without going unforseen by this great group of guys/gals. (I think I stumbled into the plot a Tom Cruise Movie just now). Now, if one can predict another's actions before they occur and be correct about them 100% of the time... Does one still act under free will?
This subject was also discussed in one of my philosophy classes a while back and we couldn't find a common ground. The argument was this... God is omniscient with knowledge that transcends time... does that negate free will for God's subjects?
I gave the argument that it did... If somehow all my actions were pre-determined and known by some other being, my will is no longer, or better yet, has never been free to act in any form.
The argument against my argument was that if God does not share the knowledge with the person... the person is still acting freely. And that's my conundrum.
I could not grasp that a person could act freely, simply because this person is ignorant of the knowledge carried by another being. But if one breaks down the argument a bit... If a person believes him/herself to be acting on free will... can one argue that he/she is not?
Well... let's replace God with science.
The Esquelito Argument :)
Can we determine, at some point in the future history of man, a way to gather evidence that will be able to conclude exactly how a person is going to act, react, think, love, believe, etc... And can we honestly say that this person is acting on his own free will?
I say no... but ignorance might be the key to unlocking the argument. Remaining ignorant of the information collected by others... one would be forced to believe he/she is making choices/decisions on their own free will and one of these collectors of information should not be able to convince this ignorant man that his/her decision was already determined.
So then the question becomes... is free will solely in the hands of the subjective experience... and not from the objective perspective?
Please feel free to comment your thoughts and arguments as I know not where else to go with this.
CommentsLoading...
Dude, you are forgetting about the Heisenberg Principle. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Heisenberg_principle
Quantum mechanics can be a bitch. Check this out:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DfPeprQ7oGc
WARNING, don't watch the previous video in an altered state of mind!
The reanson in said human being are not predictable it becos i have pass 2 many experience about human being,human are changing everyday








Kevin 2 years ago
On much contemplation then to rumination and then somehow freeing myself from that state I have momentarily concluded that their are levels or perhaps a spectrum on which consciousness lay.
Human behavior could possibly be fully predictable. Meaning their is a one to one correspondence between the event and their behavior. However their behavior is entirely dependent upon their placement of consciousness on the spectrum.
I do believe that fully conscious humans will know the correct response, given any event. Thus they will have no choice. It is this "no choice" or "no freedom" that does free an individual and makes them predictable.
Could it be that lower level humans are the ones that want to be free and are free. They are driven by the sometimes whimsical, malicious, etc...nature, which makes them unpredictable except in the momentary derivative taken to infinity.